Climate change impact assessment on water inflow to a coastal lagoon: the Ria de Aveiro watershed

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Last Updated September 12, 2018, 10:19 (Europe/Berlin)
Created July 18, 2018, 19:25 (Europe/Berlin)
Language Eng
Abstract A climate change impact study was performed for the watershed of the Ria de Aveiro Lagoon in Portugal. The total freshwater inflow to the lagoon was analysed considering long-term average annual and seasonal changes in discharge, as well as extremes in terms of high/low-flow percentiles. The eco-hydrological model SWIM was calibrated at three gauges and driven by a set of 15 climate scenarios from the ENSEMBLES project for one reference and three future 30-year periods. The results indicate a moderate decrease of total inflow by 5–7% in the first two scenario periods, and up to 15% in the third period. High flows do not change significantly, whereas low flows show the strongest decreasing trend among the analysed variables (10–30%). Though the trends in average discharge and low flow are very clear, the uncertainty of projections driven by 15 scenarios is high, and it is increasing with time.
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Spatial representation type
License Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial (CC BY-NC 4.0)
Classification Environment
Publication date 2015-04-08
INSPIRE theme Natural risk zones
Free keywords CS5, Aveiro, Natura 2000, Ria de Aveiro, Baixo Vouga Lagunar, Vouga Basin, Portugal, lagoon, paper
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Responsible party Organisation: Hydrological Sciences Journal
Role: Point of Contact
Related publications Anastassi Stefanova, Valentina Krysanova, Cornelia Hesse & Ana Isabel Lillebø (2015) Climate change impact assessment on water inflow to a coastal lagoon: the Ria de Aveiro watershed, Portugal, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 60:5, 929-948, DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2014.983518
Spatial extent - North 40.87
Spatial extent - South 40.48
Spatial extent - East -8.45
Spatial extent - West -8.86

Dataset extent

Political boundaries: GAUL 2015, © FAO Statistics Division.